On analysis of the dollar
News of the United States were the expectations of Donald Trump President since he was elected in November. The dollar immediately after the election and won a position with large coins, at the intersection of 14 years because they want the new interest rate hike raised area under the aegis of the leverage of interest in a reduction of taxes. But up on the strength $Trump lose political act aggressively protectionist trend, as well as by the absence of a clear consumption forecast and future tax expenses.
The White House on January 20 inaugural tip of Trump, that protectionist measures in a carefree looks like investors disappointed that I hope your victory in November.
In addition, the surprise for the market, said Trump, who are concerned about the strength of the dollar. Although your Ministry quickly downplayed comments from 2 weeks enough that the dollar index hit the nadir.
However, the Fed's 25 basis points since the financial crisis of 0.5 0.75% zhi increases exactly one year after the end of 2016. FED'S interbank interest rate rose for the second time for interest rates, changes in December 2015.
The 10 members of the Committee to support this increase. Even the optimistic expectations of aggressive interest supports American political officers in the year 2017 and politics. "Conspiracy" of the FOMC, until the end of the year for each Member of the specified types of forecasts, the results, which the three Committee should take that was born in the year 2017, a proportion reflected the same chart in September. a total of 11 17 members believe that the United States will increase in three classifications are more optimistic than expected this year.
This year, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Janet · The Federal Republic has reiterated comments by Yellen are extremely positive for the market, focus on inflation and full employment Commission closer to your goal. Rhetoric, members of the Federal market Committee maintains an upward trend, suggesting that the Fed may take more aggressive than your market position.
On the other hand, the business news of the United States are still pending. The job market even more is thrown in force and January, 227,000 new job opportunities. Unemployment rate remained low for 8 years and more importantly, that wages increased. Average salary increased by 2.9% in the year 2016, the strongest increase since the financial crisis. Even if the Fed believes that the rate remained therefore the February session, we, that there are many possibilities, in March of this year, as more remains responsive to the labour market. We believe that the sum of three or four in the year 2017, would be after the last episode.
